...James Howard Kunstler's book, The Long Emergency, makes it clear that our illusionary world of comfort and relative luxury is about to be shattered. America, under its present leadership, is like the Roman empire-growing weak from luxury, sloth & inflation on the inside, & assailed by a tough, fanatical adversary on our frontiers...
As I watch the happy vacation traffic on the Oregon Coast this summer and read the news of the continuing housing meltdown on the homefront, while two wars rage and a third one is being prepped for its debut, I can't help feeling that our illusionary world of comfort and relative luxury is about to be shattered.
Catalyzing this perception is the fact that I've been reading a book by James Howard Kunstler, called The Long Emergency, and I have to say that the average American doesn't have any idea the trouble we will facing over the next few years. Yet we go on waltzing on the Titanic, unconcerned, most of us.
Our nation is at the peak of its imperial reach. The U.S. commands the greatest percentage of the world's resources, in particular oil and natural gas, yet we are very profligate in our use of them. Downright wasteful. What most Americans don't realize is how quickly we will be running out of these unique substances upon which our way of life depends.
There are two wars going on abroad, but you would hardly know it with the party atmosphere here at home. Many Americans drive huge motorhomes towing luxury SUVs when they vacation. I saw one recently that also had a full-dress Harley on the back fender of the motorhome, with a Cadillac Escalade in tow! We drive mainly SUVs and large trucks, now, due to better crash rating and tax incentives - how smart is that? (Yes, there is a tax incentive to buy Hummers!) And NASCAR is fast becoming our national pastime - modern chariot racing, burning up gasoline for amusement, watching people go around in circles, while the spectators stand around drinking beer and purchasing logo merchandise.
The majority of Americans can't seem to do anything unless there's a chance to burn up some gasoline. Of course, we have to drive our SUVs to work and to the store, but even on vacation, we seem to rate our status by the number and expense of the motorized toys we use to mediate our experience of the natural world. Normal, prosperous folks in my part of the country must have a big diesel truck to tow the trailer full of All-Terrain-Vehicles when they take the kids and wife camping for the weekend. Then, a "real man" needs a motorboat for fishing and maybe a brace of jet skis for thrills. If there's not a throttle or a trigger attached to it, they're not interested.
On the whole, we're a sick society and probably deserve to be brought back into line with Nature's balance, but for the sake of the intellectuals and the poor who are not participating so extravagantly in this carnival of affluence it may be wise to wrest control away from our unenlightened leaders and set a new course for America, out of self-defense. Just because Bush and the Neocons choose to run this country off a cliff, it doesn't mean we have to follow them.
We have been asleep as our political leaders have led us for years into small and large wars, mostly against primitive, relatively defenseless countries, such as Vietnam, Somalia, and more recently Afghanistan and Iraq. A lot of people are killed and maimed on both sides, a lot of our economic wealth is wasted - and still, we lose. What is it all about? Our leaders are fools to continually pick losing battles and we are fools for letting them waste and plunder and kill for the profit of those who sell us the tools of war. Bob Dylan called them "The Masters of War" long ago in a song and he nailed them pretty accurately.
Since we have not been particularly successful in these mini-wars, why do we continue to engage in them? Could it be that war, in itself, is profitable for a large part of our economy? There are highly profitable manufacturers of war machines - jets, tanks, trucks, helicopters, etc., and military bases spread strategically among the states so all have an interest in keeping those payrolls. There are related budgets for think tanks (which think up reasons to go to war and ?sell' them to the populace), universities, and R&D facilities, and finally there are the high-paid contractors who now do much of what the low-paid army used to do for itself. Together, they amount to a sizeable portion of the American economy. We have fallen for what Eisenhower warned us against: the military-industrial complex.
War is a major employer.
If we stopped having unproductive wars, many Americans would be out of a job. Is it reasonable to assume that war and the tools of war have become one of America's principal exports to the world? Is it any wonder we are hated and feared by so many of the small, underdeveloped nations? They must be wondering, "Will we be pounced on next?"
And how many of us who think our hands are free of blood-money are profiting from our mutual funds' investments in the war industry?
We have lost our way. We have a thin chance of coming to our senses and changing our course before we are irrevocably thrown into further and terminal decline. The key to avoiding the consequences of our wrong living is the Presidential election in 2008. If an overwhelming majority of Americans will vote for positive change we can buy enough time to begin healing this nation and its frayed relations with the other nations of the world.
Make no mistake about it: Life in America will be a lot harder without oil, but it doesn't have to be totally chaotic and violent. The key to a smooth transition will be wise and honest leadership - something we haven't had for a long time.
We need an administration that points to more personal responsibility to solve our problems, rather than one that leads us into military adventures hoping to capture more of the magical substances that allow us to continue living beyond the "carrying capacity" of our planet. It may be that expecting humans to change proactively to an impending crisis is unrealistic, but it's worth a try to save our skins. Here are some of the major challenges we face:
- Our whole society worldwide is based on fossil fuels that we are fast depleting. Kunstler recently stated that in five years the U.S.A. will be experiencing total economic paralysis due to shortages and supply disruptions of oil and natural gas.
- Our industrialized agriculture is totally dependent on fossil fuels. No diesel = No food in the stores. Less oil for fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel = Much higher food prices. We're already seeing increases in the prices of milk, pork, and beef due to the diversion of feed corn to produce ethanol, thanks to boondoggle federal farm subsidies.
- Our transportation is 95% dependent on cheap and dependable fossil fuels.
- Our defense systems are dependent on fossil fuels.
- Our commerce depends on fossil fuels.
We no longer manufacture many (most?) of the items we use daily; without cheap oil, they won't be transported here for our use. Gearing up again to manufacture them again may not be practical in times of oil shortage.
Our cities, towns, and suburbs are arranged in such a way that, without affordable oil - and there are no good, immediately available alternatives - we will effectively be out of business with no food nor work nor travel within a short time of a major oil embargo, for whatever reason. (Think of the repercussions of the impending attack on Iran!)
The antagonism we have created by our insistence on using force to try to remedy ideological and other disputes will push our adversaries to finding more and more destructive means to assert their independence from the American Empire. Translated into everyday lingo: We can expect our enemies to eventually use anything from nuclear weapons to viruses on the American homeland in order to get us to consider their complaints. And they do have some legitimate, long-festering complaints.
America, under its present unenlightened leadership, is like the ancient Roman empire - growing weak from luxury and sloth and inflation on the inside, and assailed by a tough, fanatical adversary on our frontiers. We are headed for the unavoidable fall if we continue on our present course. We're militarily overextended, we're going broke - as were the Romans, but our adversaries have not only a more efficient military model (guerilla war is cheap), but also the possibility of acquiring and using the most terrible destructive weapons ever invented (ironically, by us!)
To make things worse, both our Western fundamentalist Christian leaders and our fundamentalist Islamic adversaries have the belief that a final battle between "Good" and "Evil" is coming soon and is desirable. This, I believe, is avoidable.
The only way to avoid eventual Armageddon is to elect leaders who will show the American people that our present military response to all disputes no longer works in a world with nuclear-armed adversaries and that, for another reason, we are going broke trying to militarily control the world (which is only aggravating the problem, anyway).
The energy we are burning trying to militarily control the worldwide oil resource could be better used to prepare for a smooth changeover to alternative energy sources - to the limited extent that's possible. Americans also need to face the reality that, at this time, there is no practical replacement for oil and natural gas, so we had better start using them more wisely.
We have been lulled into believing that there is some technological advance on the drawing boards that will easily allow us to transition away from fossil fuels without giving up any of our favorite energy-guzzling pastimes. Don't believe it! Get a copy of
The Long Emergency and read his analysis of alternative fuels, if you doubt it. Kunstler picks apart all the familiar new energy sources that are supposed to save the day. His research is thorough and very convincing.
If we want to survive the end of the Oil Age, we as a nation need to make an evolutionary leap away from using violence to try to solve our resource disputes with other nations and move toward an intelligent collaboration, or at least a policy of non-intervention in the affairs of other nations. We also need to start treating our precious natural resources as a gift, not a given.
It could be argued that America is locked in a battle between the Neanderthals who prefer (and profit from) violent solutions to international disputes and Cro-Magnons, who would use intelligent cooperation to come up with solutions that are acceptable to all parties.
We see Neanderthals in fancy suits, running for President. War Hero McCain is certainly one, who probably still thinks we could have won in Vietnam if only we'd used more force. Rudy Giuliani is definitely one. Even Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton talk really tough in private to the American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC) - "All options are on the table" they say when it comes to dealing with Iran's desire to develop their own nuclear capacity. And we all know what that means.
It is time to make a major evolutionary leap to save humankind a lot of grief over the next five to ten years. Only one candidate for President has the policies and the temperament to help America negotiate both a turn away from violence and a downsizing of our government which will prevent our impending bankruptcy. I hope that the majority of voters will realize the huge opportunity for peace, freedom, and prosperity that we are being offered - and the dangers of electing another murderous Neanderthal who continues to avoid the real issues we need to face.
It needs to be said that - whether or not we change our political direction - America faces some very challenging conditions over the next 5-10 years (and beyond) as the effects of the Peak Oil phenomenon become evident. It would certainly help to take the needless distraction of war off the table so that we, as a nation, can regain our former position as moral leaders in the world community.
Is it so strange a notion that we, as intelligent people, could get more of what we want from other nations by trade and friendly commerce than by war?
by Paul Kemp [click here for more articles], who awoke to the realities of American politics as a Conscientious Objector and war resister during the Vietnam era. He is an entrepreneur and writer who lives in the Pacific Northwest. He welcomes feedback through his website, www.defending-your-retirement.com/